You would like to know how long gold is going and how high it is going up. When you have this information, investing and making money is easy. With this information you know exactly what call options to buy or when to sell your Gold ETF or futures.

At the time of writing, I am “long” gold. But here is the crux. I’m long gold without knowing how long and how high this commodity will increase in price. I actually acknowledge the fact that my bet could turn out wrong and that gold will from now onwards only decline in price.

Why Long Gold

To make it even more clear: I have absolute no clue or even estimation or expectation for how long the gold price would go up or how high it could go. And still I put my hard-earned savings in a Gold ETF. Why would I do that? Did I lose my mind?

What I think is that nobody on this earth knows how long and how high the gold price will be moving up. And if someone would know this, he or she is much smarter than I am and will probably be keeping it a secret. But there are a few things that I do know.

What I Do Know

• It is possible to recognize the current long-term trend direction in the gold price.
  
  
• When considering a period of month, the gold price more often than not continues in the same direction as the long-term trend.
  
  
• I can control my losses by defining how much I am prepared to lose and deciding upfront at what price below my purchase price I am going to sell and take my loss.
  

Thus, I am long gold, not because I have an expectation on how long and how high its price will rise. I invest at this moment in a Gold ETF because the MATI trend signal for gold points up and I know and control how much I am willing to risk.

Uncertain Individual Outcome, Profitable Process

Only the future can tell if this investment will be a profitable one. However, I am pretty sure that in the long run, this process, this approach of investing is very profitable. There is the historical data to prove it.