September 2012

Profitability and Success Probability of Trend Trades

Both long-term investors and traders like to know what the historical performance is of a trend indicator. Find out here what profit/loss ratio and what percentage of successful trades you can expect when you use a proven long-term trend signal.

Before going to the data, let’s answer first some fundamental questions. Why would we look at historical investment results at all? Everybody knows that history does not offer a guarantee for future performance. Still, I think it is wise to study the past. History does not always repeat itself, but often it does. And often is good enough for me.

 

Probability Game

 

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